WP4 will provide process understanding and instruments for support of the transition to a low carbon society by 2050 - with application to the Stockholm-Mälar region of Sweden. This region consists of two NUTS 2 regions and is one of the highly dynamic regions in northern Europe.

The aim is to analyze strategic societal choices and their consequences. This includes the design of a toolkit for analysis 1) of emerging and optimally selected land use patterns, 2) of economic development and the impact of policy instruments, and 3) of the processes connecting the scientific support to the decision making functions at various levels, including policy processes at shorter and longer time scales.

Focus is on finding integrative forms of support to guide the path to a low carbon society under varying climate scenarios and world situations. The integration of social science, natural science and technology will be an important theme.

Different land use patterns will have different effects on the climate, and the climate, in turn, will constrain the options for land use. Whether land is used for agriculture, forestry, housing, industry, energy production, or infrastructure will depend on regional, national and EU policies, but also on cultural values and (sometimes conflicting) interests of various stakeholders. The dynamics of land use change and its environmental and economic impacts require analysis and models that can capture the complexity arising from irreversibilities, thresholds and nonlinearities involved.

This WP will explore existing models and develop new ones where needed, taking into account conditions of uncertainty and asymmetric information. The models are intended to aid stakeholders in their decision making, linking policies at the (sub-national) regional level to those at the levels of households and municipalities, as well as at national and supra-national levels. We will pay particular attention to decisions made under uncertainty, using e.g. risk cognition and risk-management approaches.

Webpage : How can we make a transition to a low carbon society?